2009-09-07 - Market overview of primary tenement houses of Vilnius, Kaunas and Klaipeda (2009.08) (MatasM)

I. Supply

During August two objects were removed from supply in Vilnius, the development of which was stopped. Also after a long break a new project and the 1st stage of the project were started. Development of 1 object was stopped in Kaunas. No major changes were noticed in Klaipeda. To summarize – the supply in Vilnius increased insignificantly, in Kaunas it remained the same and decreased in Klaipeda.

It is worth mentioning that there is a large share of reserved apartments in the primary market, which theoretically may still go back into the supply – 320 apartments in Vilnius, 90 in Kaunas and about 100 in Klaipeda. If the reservations were cancelled, the supply in Vilnius would increase by 13%, 12% in Kaunas and 15% in Klaipeda.





II. Demand

Demand-wise August was significantly more active in the residential market than July, when the lowest demand point was reached during three years we have been observing the market. The last 3 months were the worst ones during the period of 3 years. According to historical data, 7 out of 10 worst months have been reached this year.

The sum of sold and reserved apartments reflects the market realisation result. 22 projects in Vilnius had a positive result and a negative change of demand was registered in 11 projects. In Kaunas - respectively 7 and 3 and in Klaipeda – 6 positive and 2 negative results.



The clickstreem data of websites offering RE shows that interest in real estate continues growing. However, expectations that the prices have not yet reached the bottom makes the potential buyers continue waiting.



III. Prices

In August the prices were corrected by many RE developers. Square metre price average of apartments in Vilnius supply decreased by 2.9%, in Kaunas – 5.6% and in Klaipeda – 3.3%. It was likely caused by the fact that developers were not satisfied with the pace of sales and they were trying to stimulate the activity of buyers.



IV. Conclusions and forecasts

Although more and more articles are appearing in the media, mentioning the recovery of economy, analysts agree that it will reach the Baltic States later. Having in mind that real estate follows the economy and present tendencies of economy as well as forecasts of analysts, a conclusion can be made that it is too early to talk about the “bottom” of real estate.

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Comments

2009-09-07 15:01 andriuz

 Nerealizuota butu Vilniuj kreive kyla i virsu ar man ten akiniai kreivai rodo?

2009-09-07 15:34 MatasM

"Taip pat po didelės pertraukos atsirado 1 naujas projektas ir buvo paleistas naujas 1 projekto etapas." - nesivaidena :)

2009-09-07 18:40 KiauleVoras

Matai, o kaip tu nusprendi, kokius projektus traukti į pasiūlą. Pvz., ar sustabdyti projektai irgi yra įskaičiuojami į nerealizuotų butų kiekį. kad ir tas pats Vyroko riestainis Vilniuje?

2009-09-07 19:41 MatasM

Ne, neįskaičiuojami. Kol kas Vyrokas teigia, kad bankrotinama yra rangovinė kompanija, o ne NT valdytoja. Pardavimai kaip ir dar buvo vykdomi. Mėnesio gale vėl pasitikrinsim :)

2009-09-07 20:35 KiauleVoras

o kokio baigtumo naujai pradedami statyti butai itraukiami i pasiula? Juk netrauksi to projekto, kur net duobes neiskase pradeda "pardavineti" busimus butus.

2009-09-07 21:59 MatasM

Jei objektas išmetamas į rinka pardavimams - jis įtraukiamas pas mus į statistika. Kaip gi kitaip mes sektume bendrą pasiūlą? O kuri dalis yra jau pastatytuose objektuose, kuri statomuose ir planuojamuose mes parodom :)

2009-09-07 22:00 MatasM

Tiesa, pastaba - pagrinde pardavimai rezervacijos daromos jau išplėtotuose objektuose.

2009-09-08 08:58 KiauleVoras

Bet jei statybos net neprasidejusios - tai kokia cias pasiula? Juk tokiu atveju net negalima pasakyti kada jis galetu buti baigtas? Juk sustabdytas projektas irgi tokiu atveju gali buti pasiuloje - na ir kas kad statybos darbai nevyksta - surinks kazkiek pirkeju ir vel prades?

2009-09-08 11:52 MatasM

Jei tokie objektai nestabdys pardavimų, jie ir liks pasiūloje. Bet beveik visi sustabdo.

2009-09-08 11:56 KiauleVoras

tai jei statyba sustabdyta (arba visai nevyksta), o pardavimai - vyksta - tai toks objektas skaitosi aktyviu pasiulos objektu?

2009-09-08 12:48 MatasM

ech... jau turėjai suprasti, kad taip.

2009-09-10 17:53 carrick

Ar yra kur nors tokios informacijos kiek pvz Vilniuje yra sustabdytu ir neaktyviu objektu?

2009-09-10 18:23 MatasM

carrick - dalis jų yra įvesta į duomenų bazę. Tiesiog atsifiltruok pasirinkdamas: sustabdytas ir planuojamas.