2012-02-09 - Preliminary data: Latvian GDP grew by 5.2 per cent in 2011 (MatasM)

Statistics of Latvia has published flash estimates on GDP growth in Latvia in fourth quarter of 2011. According to the preliminary data, Latvian economy expanded by 5 per cent in the fourth quarter compared to the same period last year. The quarter on quarter seasonally adjusted growth was equal to 0.8 per cent. Using this data the preliminary Latvian GDP growth for 2011 should be c. 5.2 per cent. The final GDP growth rate will be published in March.

Assessment: The key growth factors in 2011 were industry (export goods) and trade (meaning gradual recovery in domestic market). These are similar factors as in Lithuania. Around 40 per cent of Latvian exports go to Lithuania, Estonia and Russia. Hence, country is less exposed to the debt problems in the Western Europe. Nevertheless, the future growth of Latvia depends both on the recovery of global economies and stronger internal demand. We currently expect Latvian economy to grow by 2.5 per cent in 2012.

Rokas Bancevičius
Senior analyst

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