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2011-09-07 - Estonia ’s inflation in August slightly higher than expected (MatasM)


Estonia’s consumer price inflation edged up from 5.2% y/y in July to 5.5% y/y in August. The annual change in CPI was slightly higher than we expected (5.3%), while monthly data proves that consumer inflation decelerates almost in line with forecasts (from 0.5% m/m in July to 0.3% m/m in August).

With one of the highest weights of food and beverages in total price index, inflation rate in Estonia sensitively reacts on any changes in food prices. In recent months, about a half of overall increase in the annual CPI rate was triggered by elevated level of food prices, the other important causes of stubbornly high prices were rising administrative costs of housing and energy.

Assessment: We expect consumer prices to drop back in autumn and inflation to slow down to 4.5% by the end of 2011. That assumes, for sure, that there is no further spike in global food prices. The upward strong growth and recovering domestic demand may prevent consumer inflation to drop sharply, though.

Jekaterina Rojaka
Chief Economist



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