2011-08-11 - Estonia’s 2Q GDP overshoots expectations (MatasM)
Estonia’s gross domestic product rose by 8.4% yoy in Q2, according to flash estimate. Compared to Q1, the seasonally and working-day adjusted GDP grew by 1.8%. The result was markedly higher than the consensus and DnB NORD estimate (7.5%). Buoyant expansion confirms the country’s leadership by GDP growth rates among the EU.
Most of economic growth has been stemming from robust, while somewhat decelerating, manufacturing output. Private consumption, judging from the monthly figures, picked up too.
It should be noted, however, that the flash estimate of economic growth has been calculated according to the new Classification of Economic Activities and revised time series, and, therefore, is not comparable to the existing series. Statistics office announced, that the backward corrections may very between -1.4 to +0.6 percentage points due to the methodological changes.
Assessment: Stronger than expected growth does not confirm weaker tendencies in manufacturing yet. The figures are in line with our recently revised upward forecast for 2011 (7%).
Jekaterina Rojaka
Chief Economist
