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2011-08-09 - Latvia ’s GDP regains momentum (MatasM)


Latvia ’s economy proves stronger recovery, with GDP at constant prices up by 5.3% yoy in Q2, after getting a cold shower in Q1, when the GDP estimate stood at humble 3.5% yoy. The figure for Q2 was higher than the consensus (ca 4.5%) and lower than DnB NORD forecast (6%).

The latest real economy indicators suggest that the growth is becoming more balanced, with domestic demand picking up. Moreover, it is likely, that after the GDP revision, the growth indicators for first half of 2011 will be revised upward. Robust tax collection ahead of schedule also proves broader-based recovery. We also believe that sound economic growth will allow fulfilling the general government deficit closer to target of 3% of GDP next year.

Assessment: On the back of dynamic rebound in most of activities, we revise Latvia’s GDP forecast upward from 4% to 5% yoy for 2011, however adjust our forecast downward to 3.5% yoy in 2012.

Jekaterina Rojaka
Chief Economist



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