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2011-10-10 - Monthly inflation in Latvia reemerged (MatasM)


In September Latvia’s monthly consumer inflation reemerged by 0.4% after decreasing for two months in a row. Latvia‘s annual inflation stood at 4.6% virtually unchanged.

Seasonal sales of clothing and footwear ended, so the largest upward pressure came from monthly changes of their prices. Due to the higher excise duty, which was increased in July, the prices for tobacco products also rose significantly.

It is hardly surprising that annual inflation persists at a time of volatility of global commodities prices and strong economic and salaries growth in Latvia. As reported earlier, average monthly gross wages grew by 5.5% yoy in the Q2, meanwhile hourly labour costs increased by 6.1%.

Assessment: We expect consumer prices to ease by the end of the year at 4% provided no surges in prices of commodities due to imminent slowdown of global economy. However, an upward pressure will come from rebound of domestic demand as retail trade grew for the fourth consecutive month in August.

Vytaute Pilipauskaite
Analyst



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